Ukrainian Counter Offensive, 2023
Ukrainian soldiers sit on an armored vehicle as they drive on a road between Izium and Lyman, Ukraine Image/AP/FranciscoSeco
Counter Offensive in the Headlines
If you have been following the Russian invasion of Ukraine like most of Europe and the West, “counter offensive” is a phrase that has become a byword in the last weeks and months. You can hardly turn the news on without speculation as to where and when it will take place, and to what degree Ukrainian forces will be successful in dealing the Russian army a defeat.
We first got a taste of what a Ukrainian counter offensive could look like in November of 2022 during the lightning Kherson advance. What appeared to originally be a feint became something much more. The Ukrainian surge pushed occupying Russian forces out of dozens of towns and villages across the Dnipro River to the east bank.
Every headline showed images of liberated Ukrainians hugging and kissing the advancing Ukrainian forces. Kherson city played Ukraine’s national anthem in its central square after it had been banned under occupation. After nine months of Russian control, the region was back under the Ukrainian flag.
The Shift of Pace in Battle
The success of Ukraine’s advance was a surprise to the world and a much needed morale boost to Ukrainians and also to those who have been aiding them in their defense. After the success of the Kherson advance, the bar was set high; then came the winter months, and the pace of the war shifted to a different tempo. Mud and cold made ground impassable to vehicles and miserable for troops stuck in trenches on the front lines. As mobility was restricted, heavy artillery duels pounding tons of ordnance across the Ukrainian countryside became commonplace. The menace to civilian infrastructure by drone and rocket attacks also increased.
Ukrainian soldiers on the front line with Russian troops in Luhansk Image/AnatoliiStepanov/AFP/GettyImages
The images of troops in trenches, ankle deep in mud, with grey shell cratered backdrops were constantly circulating on social media platforms. Both Ukrainians and Russians posted to sites like Telegram their experiences on the front lines. References to the WW1 style of combat were frequent.
The Situation Today
Fast-forward to May 2023, the mud is drying and the weather is clearing up, opening the door for mechanized units and tanks to be on the move again.
With the better weather comes the hope of Ukraine’s western allies that a Ukrainian victory in the battle space will be achieved. The “counter offensive” has become the main point of discussion in recent weeks. Ukrainian allies want to see the aid supplied to Ukraine put to use with tangible results. While that is not an unreasonable thing to hope for, keep in mind that war is a constantly changing creature. To assume a resounding flash offensive mimicking Ukraine’s Kherson surge will only set you up for disappointment.
We cannot forget that while western countries have been doing the vital work of aiding Ukraine with resources, it is Ukrainians who are actually fighting the Russian invaders, dealing with Russian trench lines, tanks, artillery, and drone attacks.
Ukrainian Objectives May Be Different From Western Objectives
While onlookers may define a successful action as “ground retaken,” it is very possible that a victory for Ukraine’s top general, Valerii Zaluzhny, looks like executing a successful combined arms maneuver, even if only on a limited scale. Throughout this war, both sides have performed combined arms action poorly. Ukrainian forces may seek a strong showcase of their military ability in the field, rather than just a flashy punch to the Russian gut. On the other hand, they may try a large scale push to take back Crimea. Or they may decide to do something different altogether.
A T-72 tank is pictured during the training of Ukrainian tank crews for offensive operations, Ukraine. Image/DmytroSmolienko/ZUMA
You can be pretty certain that Russia has also been preparing their next move. It would be a mistake to think Russian leadership will just take whatever the Ukrainian Armed Forces hand out. As tantalizing as it may be to theorize about what happens next, at the moment, it will still only be speculation. It is likely that by the time it is clear that the counter offensive is underway, it will have been in motion for some time.
The Decision Making is in Ukraine’s Hands
Spectators of the Russian invasion have been very vocal about their opinions on the war. Those believing in Ukraine’s right to defend itself on one end of the spectrum, and on the other end, those favorable to Putin’s narrative, calling for the country’s overthrow and annexation. There is a third group, however, which could be characterized by the phrase “just make it stop.” Generally people with this train of thought are sympathetic to suffering, but will not risk the implications of condemning one side or the other, (even though a non decision is still, in fact, a decision).
Statements like, “Both sides are at fault,” or, "Ukraine just needs to cede some land to Russia so that more people don’t die,” or “Ukraine needs to put down the weapons and go to the negotiating table” are characteristic of this group.
The flaws with this reasoning are numerous, but not the topic of this piece. All of these groups will have opinions as to how this war should or will end and what kinds of decisions Ukrainian leadership should be making in the meantime. But at the end of the day, in the same way that it is Ukrainians being shelled by Russian guns, it is Ukrainians who must make the decisions for their people in this war. The responsibility is on their shoulders, and they know it. Ukraine will launch its counter offensive, or offensives, when they are ready, and while allied approval of Ukrainian action would be welcomed in Ukraine, it is only one of many factors Ukrainian leadership has to work with.
One thing must be kept in mind: Western support for Ukraine is based on the notion of a country’s sovereignty, the right to defend against those who would murder, rape, and steal, and the desire for freedom from autocrats who dictate what and who you are.
Ukraine is in the Fight to the End
A resounding Ukrainian battlefield victory would be heartening for Ukraine and its allies, but what if Ukraine fails in its anticipated counter offensive? The Ukrainian people have shown that they are tough and they are here for the long haul. The fundamental right and wrong of this war will not change because of a single action. Again and again, Ukrainians at every level have demonstrated they will fight until they have victory in their country.
The destroyed domes of the Orthodox Church of the Holy Mother and convent in the village Bohorodychne, Ukraine. image/Scott Peterson/Getty Images
Whether or not Ukraine’s next major offensive action is successful, it is Ukraine as a country that has to deal with Russian soldiers on Ukrainian land. Those who support Ukraine in spirit or in aid can reprioritize to other things, but Ukrainians cannot. Their options are stand and fight, or be consumed by Russia and die as a sovereign nation. And they have made their choice.
Looking Ahead
Russia’s invasion has affected every major power. Sanctioned Russian oil and gas now flow into eastern countries like India for pennies on the dollar, while highly dependent European countries have had to make major economic shifts away from Russian energy use. Millions of Ukrainians have become refugees or been displaced, seeking safety in the West. Ukraine’s grain and oil exports which have been the bread basket for regions like Africa have been stifled by Russian blockades, creating chain reactions felt across the world. Countries like Finland and Sweden, who have previously attempted to have some kind of neutrality, have realized that they may be next on the “special military operation” chopping block and have made policy changes accordingly. These are just a few examples. The status quo has been shaken at every level.
While it is tricky to try and predict the details of the weeks and months to come, including how the Ukrainian offensive will unfold and what the global response will be, it is important to be aware that the events taking place in Ukraine and their implications will likely define this decade for all of us.
