Why Ukraine is the Most Consequential conflict of the 21st Century

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the single most important economic and foreign policy issue of our generation. Nothing else comes close.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stands with soldiers in Izium, Ukraine Image/AP

It is the largest, unprovoked,* full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation by a superpower since WWII.

It is the only time in history that Russia has invaded a nation with whom the United States specifically entered into an agreement to defend against a Russian invasion.

It is the revival of the ambitions, hagiography, and war on freedom which defined the Soviet Union. In this sense, it is the reincarnation of the Cold War, but in a deadlier, modernized context.

Other aggressors are looking to the response from the West in light of weakness and strength.

Russian armor participating in the Victory Day military parade in Moscow Image/YuriKochetkov/Shutterstock

The success or failure of Putin and his "special operation" is their cue. Many European states understand that if Russia wins in Ukraine, they are next for invasion. The future of Chinese aggression to Taiwan, of Iranian and Jihadist acts of terrorism throughout the world, will likely be determined by how the West responds to the criminality of Russia, and whether or not Putin is allowed to succeed in subjugating Ukraine.

This war is different from other Russian acts of aggression around the world in its scale and sweeping objectives.

The desolated streets of Bucha after the Russian withdrawal

First, it is the only full-scale Russian invasion since WWII of a distinctively pro-Western nation, making it a self-conscious provocation to the West and test of its resolve. Second, it represents the formal rejection of the rules-based modern law order by a member of the UN Security Council and a global superpower, a fact which inescapably leads to either a Russian expulsion from that body, or the ultimate disestablishment of the UN as we know it. The de facto generalized peace of the world, even under Cold War realities, will have officially come to an end if Russia prevails.

There have been numerous examples of warcrimes over the last 80 years, but nothing since the Third Reich comes close to the scale committed by Russia against the people of Ukraine.

Volunteers load bodies of civilians killed in Bucha onto a truck to be taken to a morgue for investigation Image/AP

In light of the newly formed axis of terror between totalitarian states with roots in Marxist Leninism - Russia, North Korea, and China, and their Jihadist partner Iran - we must expect that if Putin is successful in Ukraine, the world will experience the normalization of warcrimes against civilians at a scale not seen since the Holocaust. This new reality, and the threat that no one will be safe from state-sponsored invasion, kidnapping, murder, torture and rape, will change the nature of life on the planet and lead to heightened militarism, repression of individual freedoms and fundamental socio-economic instability.

This war is the lynchpin to the future of Europe.

Image/TylerHicks/TNYT

The future of America is inextricably linked to Europe. The economies and political stability of every European nation is linked to the outcome in Ukraine. The economic implications alone for America of a European community in ruins could be staggering.

If Putin is successful, we should expect a future in which entire economies are placed in permanent wartime mode with hundreds of trillions of dollars spent. We should anticipate the largest refugee crisis in global history and expect the loss of millions of lives. In sum, the future of civilization itself globally hinges on the defeat of Russia in Ukraine.

*”Unprovoked” - Anyone can claim a provocation from anyone for any reason real or imagined: “I feel threatened.” “I think your choices as a nation are adverse to my nation’s ambitions.” Gangsters may claim provocation as a justification for drive by shootings against any individual or institution that stands in their way of their criminality, but claiming provocation does not constitute an ethical or legal basis for invasion. In the context of Just War theory, such an action is criminal. In the case of international treaties, a preemptive strike of invasion against a sovereign nation feigned to be a threat, is an unprovoked warcrime.