Ten Years of Biden Weakness Invites Russian Aggression in Ukraine
Summary: A well-tested and time-proven principle of foreign policy is this: American weakness encourages Russian aggression. American strength curtails Russian misbehavior. Biden has a ten year track record for projecting weakness to Putin. It should not be surprising that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine occurred under his presidential watch. Here is how to happened.
Since February 24, 2022, President Joe Biden has proven to be a friend and an advocate for Ukraine. But that’s not the whole story.
Biden has a ten year track record of projecting systemic weakness to Putin, first as part of the Obama/Biden Administration. Later as Commander in Chief of the U.S.A. During the Obama/Biden Administration, Biden advocated for Ukraine with then president Obama, but lacked the influence or strength to persuade. The official policy became one of general indifference and appeasement to Russian aggression. What began with 2014 Obama/Biden policies of appeasement, re-emerged during the Biden presidential administration as vocal and practical support for Ukraine, but the absence of a vision for victory. Instead, Biden has projected weakness through his own cognitive challenges, his catastrophic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, his lack of action after being briefed of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine more than a week in advance, and his post-full scale invasion policy of strategic ambiguity which threatens to prolong the war indefinitely. Below are six specific examples of ways that Biden has communicated weakness to Putin:
Obama/Biden in 2014
1 The Obama/Biden response to Putin’s Assault on Eastern Ukraine and Annexation of Crimea: The Obama/Biden Administration of 2014 responded to the destabilization and invasion of Eastern Ukraine by Putin with little more than a hand slap. When Putin annexed Crimea, they failed to offer a meaningful response. Rather than helping Ukraine at that time, the Obama/Biden Administration banned the sale of military aid to them. Importantly, Obama/Biden sent a message to Russia that they would not interfere with Russian aggression. This meant breaking America’s commitment to defend Ukraine against Russian invasion promised in the Budapest Memorandum. Under Obama/Biden leadership, Ukraine was treated as inconsequential. The message was sent to Putin — “Do what you want. There will be no meaningful consequences.” When senators like John McCain pleaded with the president, warning of a coming full scale invasion, Obama and Biden turned a deaf ear. Obama responded to one such warning from a presidential rival by famously saying: “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.” It was not until the Trump Administration that the ban on sending weapons to Ukraine was lifted.
2 The Biden/Harris Administration’s Response to Crisis within the USA: Fast forward from 2014 to 2020. America is emerging from some of the worst internal struggles in modern history. As cities burned and riots broke out, America elected a vice president who openly supported mob leaders and community destruction. COVID not only shut down the nation, but raised tremendous suspicion with people of both political parties that the Biden Administration was manipulating the crisis in a manner destructive of individual liberties. Sitting in Moscow, Putin observed this and asserted the superiority of Russia over the disorderly and chaotic West. From Putin’s perspective, this internal division and unwillingness to maintain order signaled fundamental weakness.
3 The Biden/Harris Administration Focus on Woke Politics: Rather than focusing on issues of economics and foreign policy, the Biden Administration made the “woke” narrative a primary objective of their administration. Biden promoted issues like transgenderism and LGBTQ repeatedly dominated the American headlines. From gender counseling in schools to the introduction of biological men into women’s sports to placing a transgender activist as one of America’s top ranking military appointments, Biden’s obsessions with woke culture drove large segments of mainstream Americans to rage. Putin likely interprets this as another signal that American leadership in the world is waning and that the leaders of America are not serious people. They are silly people focused on silly things, running the government like a burlesque troop rather than leading the Free World. This played importantly into the Russian narrative: “The West is perverse and immoral. I [Putin] am a man of tradition and morality. I ban abortion, shut down sketchy nightclubs, prohibit homosexual marriages, and go to church with Patriarch Kirill. Russia is a moral country. The West is debauched.” It’s a message that sells well with a Russia desperately hoping to return to the glory days of the USSR. It also sells well with some on the American Right who don’t remember that Adolf Hitler used similar rhetoric as a pretext for invasion. Strategically, Putin has used Biden’s woke weakness as a powerful wedge to undermine American resolve. Putin and his advisers have adopted the rhetoric of the anti-Biden Right to win over support from populists like Vivek Ramaswami, and commentators like Tucker Carlson.
4 Biden’s Catastrophic Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was perhaps the loudest message sent to Putin. Essentially it was this: “Remember that country in which Americans fought and died for two decades? Here is the plan. We are going to withdraw at breakneck speed, throw all our Afghan friends who helped us under the bus, leave our own people unprotected with no meaningful exit strategy, and then hand over as a tax-free gift from the American people, billions in military hardware to the very enemy we have been fighting.” It may have been the most incoherent moment in the history of the United States military. It was all Putin needed to see to be assured that America had ceased to be a threat to his global ambitions.
5 The Cognitive Crisis of the American President: An American President in cognitive decline is a weak president. Like the rest of the world, Putin has been watching the cognitive decline of the President of the United States. An American president who forgets words, becomes easily disoriented, and has to be led by the hand off stage is simply not a formidable opponent to Putin. Biden’s personal weakness is Putin’s military and political opportunity. That the United States is considering him for a second term also signals weakness and the diminished role of the USA in the world.
6 Biden’s Lack of Commitment to a Ukrainian Victory: To Biden’s credit, he acknowledged the criminality of the full scale Russian invasion and made a policy decision to stand with Ukraine. He has welcomed President Zelensky, honored the cause of Ukraine in his speeches, and provided military aid. To his discredit, he has failed to communicate a vision of victory for Ukraine. He supports helping Ukraine, but just enough to stay alive. He refuses to give Ukraine necessary tools which could secure victory and end the war. This is a policy error, a strategy error, a military error, and a sign to Putin (and China, Iran, and Hamas) of American weakness. There is no reason to believe Biden’s position on Ukraine will improve in a second administration. There is every reason to believe that his resolve is weakening even now. Furthermore, Biden lacks the ability to build consensus by rallying Republicans to sustain more than minimal support for Ukraine.
The Invasion of Ukraine did not emerge in a vacuum. It rests on at least a quarter of a century of Russian operation, revealing their unwillingness to break with the legacy of the USSR: Their use of brutalitarian measures, complete disregard for international law is the pattern whether in Chechnya, Georgia, or Ukraine. Their appeal to a hagiography of Russian history is used as a technique to enslave the minds of their people and obscure criminal activity like warcrimes in Ukraine. Their disregard for treaties, conventions, and the rules-based order is standard operating procedure. But in the end, Russia will always take what the West allows them to take.
American weakness is never the only reason for Russian aggression, but it is the trigger. Nobody likes consequences, especially former Soviets who lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union and are trying to hold onto power in a newly constituted Russian police state. That is why Russian goals are always measured against West-inflicted consequences. More important than any official policy statement is American moral resolve and projection of strength.
Putin and his lackeys have been clear on their long term vision: Restore the boundaries of the USSR; walk NATO backwards; and eliminate the independence of Ukraine as a nation, even to the point of eradicating its culture. The weakness of President Biden has not gone unnoticed. In the context of Putin’s stated vision, a weak American presidency is like blood in the water to a shark. It signals an opportunity for aggression. The only military and political obstacle between Russia and its hegemonic goals in Europe is the West. Remove the United States from the equation and it’s time for Russia to “feed” off weaker sovereign nations. The most important target for Putin has always been Ukraine. In this context, it is reasonable to conclude that the weakness of the Biden presidency was a significant contributing factor in Putin’s decision to mount a full scale invasion of the sovereign nation of Ukraine.
